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Exclusive-Japan’s debt issuance to surge 28% in fiscal 2029 from 2026, finance ministry estimates

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•Japan’s Finance Ministry estimates that Japan’s government bond issuance will surge by approximately 28% in fiscal 2029 compared with fiscal 2026 levels.
•The Finance Ministry projects that debt-servicing costs will account for about 30% of Japan’s national budget within roughly three years.
•The estimated cost related to government bonds in Japan’s FY2029 fiscal situation is projected at 41.3 trillion yen, according to the Finance Ministry.
•These projections indicate a rising trajectory of Japan’s debt-servicing burden over the period from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2029.
•The estimates originate from Japan’s Finance Ministry and have been reported by outlets including Nikkei Asia, Investing.com, and NHK World.

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▸If Japan’s government bond issuance continues to rise in line with the Finance Ministry’s projections through fiscal 2029 Investors may demand higher yields on Japanese Government Bonds, increasing the government’s borrowing costs and potentially crowding out other budgetary spending.

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Exposición de Mercado

BonoJapanese Government Bonds (JGBs)Presión Alcista

If Japan’s debt issuance rises by the projected 28% by fiscal 2029, additional supply could put upward pressure on JGB yields as investors seek compensation for higher sovereign borrowing.