Hormuz Closure Splits Middle East Oil Fortunes Amid Trade Risks

Middle Eastern outlets describe a fragile reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Gulf exporters split between those constrained by the chokepoint and those with alternative routes. Iran is portrayed as using both Hormuz and the threat to Bab al-Mandab to gain leverage in talks, while regional states push for guaranteed free navigation. Commentators expect prolonged shipping caution, with Gulf economies facing uneven gains and losses depending on their export routes and reliance on Asian buyers.

• •Iran links full normalization of Hormuz traffic to progress in talks with the United States on sanctions and security guarantees.
• •Gulf oil states that can ship via Red Sea pipelines or bypass Hormuz are capturing higher margins from tighter supply out of the Gulf.
• •Shipowners serving Gulf ports are demanding clearer security assurances and insurance terms before committing to normal transit schedules through Hormuz.
• •Regional governments are pressing for an international arrangement that protects free passage through Hormuz without new tolls or unilateral controls.
• •Iran’s warning about possible disruption at Bab al-Mandab is intended to remind neighbours that other regional chokepoints are also vulnerable.