Observable data points shared across all narratives
Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the central bank will assess the impact of a VAT increase on inflation at a specified point, while noting the Bank of Russia still cannot confirm whether the VAT-related inflation effect has fully played out. She also stated that the peak of inflationary pressure was passed in January and characterized January’s inflation acceleration as a one-off. The remarks matter for expectations around Russia’s inflation trajectory and the Bank of Russia’s near-term policy calibration amid tax-driven price dynamics.