Russia Tops Oil Supply to India and China in February, OPEC Reports
Reported Facts
Observable data points shared across all narratives
- •The International Energy Agency estimated Russia’s March 2026 oil and petroleum product export revenues at roughly $19 billion, nearly twice the level a year earlier.
- •Russia’s total oil exports in March 2026 were assessed at 7.13 million barrels per day, the highest level in several months.
- •OPEC data for February 2026 show Russia as the largest crude supplier to India, ahead of traditional Middle Eastern exporters.
- •The same OPEC report lists Russia as the top crude supplier to China in February 2026, outpacing Saudi Arabia and other producers.
- •Russian outlets report that growth in Russia’s oil production and exports is being constrained by logistics bottlenecks and limited export infrastructure capacity.
- •The IEA projects that global crude oil demand will see its biggest quarterly drop since the Covid-19 shock, weighing on price expectations.
- •TRT World links Russia’s higher oil export revenues to tighter supplies and price moves connected to the ongoing war involving Iran.
- •Western reporting notes that Russia’s higher oil income has come despite G7 price caps and sanctions aimed at curbing Moscow’s energy earnings.
Core Disagreement— Sanctions Impact
According to Russia, sanctions fail to curb russian oil income or exports.. However, West sources see it as sanctions work partly but need tighter enforcement..
Narrative Split
How different information blocks interpret these facts
ME
War-Driven Price Support
Middle Eastern coverage links Russia’s revenue jump to higher prices and supply worries tied to the war involving Iran. This view holds that conflict risk in the Gulf has tightened markets, allowing Russia to earn more even while selling at discounts. Commentators in the region expect that any easing of the Iran conflict or a deeper demand slump would pressure both Russian and Middle Eastern producers to adjust output.
- •Regional outlets connect Russia’s March revenue surge to higher global prices during the Iran war.
- •Commentary in the Middle East notes that supply fears in the Gulf have made discounted Russian barrels more attractive to Asian buyers.
- •Analysts in the region suggest that if the Iran conflict cools, benchmark prices could fall and cut Russia’s earnings.
- •Middle Eastern reporting points out that OPEC and Russia may need closer coordination if demand keeps dropping.
- •Some regional voices warn that Russia’s strong presence in India and China challenges traditional Gulf suppliers in those markets.
WEST
Sanctions Effect Questioned
Western outlets focus on the near-doubling of Russian oil revenues as a sign that current sanctions and price caps are not cutting Moscow’s war funding as intended. They stress that India and China’s purchases are helping Russia offset lost European markets, while warning that a forecast drop in global demand could soon squeeze Moscow’s earnings. Many expect Western governments to consider tighter enforcement of price caps and shipping restrictions.
- •Western reporting links Russia’s higher March revenues directly to strong sales to India and China at prices above the G7 cap.
- •Commentators in the West argue that gaps in enforcement allow Russian oil to move on older tankers with opaque ownership.
RU
Resilient Energy Exports
Russian outlets present the export and revenue surge as proof that Russia has successfully redirected oil flows toward Asia despite Western sanctions. They highlight strong demand from India and China while stressing that remaining growth is mainly limited by shipping and infrastructure, not by buyers. Looking ahead, they expect Russia to keep using discounted pricing and alternative shipping arrangements to hold market share in Asia.
- •Russian officials and commentators describe India and China as reliable long-term buyers of Russian crude despite Western pressure.
- •Reports in Russia say export growth is now held back by tanker availability, port capacity, and rail links rather than a lack of demand.
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Where Narratives Diverge
Key disagreements, blind spots, and what to watch next.
Sanctions Impact◇Different Reading
Russia
Sanctions fail to curb Russian oil income or exports.West
Sanctions work partly but need tighter enforcement.So what
Readers cannot tell whether current Western tools are enough to cut Russia’s war funding or if much tougher steps are required.
War And Prices◇Different Reading
Middle East
Iran war lifts prices and boosts Russian revenue.Finance
Weak demand, not war, will drive prices and earnings.So what
It is hard to judge whether conflict risk or slowing consumption matters more for Russia’s future oil income.
Future Discounts⚡Disputed
Russia
Russia can keep exports high without deeper discounts.Finance
Russia may need bigger discounts as demand falls.So what
Without clear pricing data on future contracts, readers cannot see how much revenue Russia might lose to keep its market share.
Contract Terms○Nobody Covers
No block provides details on the exact pricing formulas and contract lengths for Russian crude sold to India and China, which would show how quickly any new sanctions or price swings would feed through to Moscow’s revenues.
Next IEA Report▸What to Watch
The next IEA monthly oil market report over the coming weeks will update export volumes, realized prices, and demand forecasts, helping to show whether Russia’s March revenue surge was a one‑off spike or part of a longer trend.
What Could Happen If...
- ▸If Western countries tighten enforcement of the oil price cap and shipping sanctions on Russia More Russian cargoes to India and China could be disrupted or rerouted, forcing Moscow to rely more on its own tanker fleet and possibly accept lower net prices to keep volumes moving.
Market Exposure
Different sides disagree on how this affects markets. The same instrument may move in opposite directions depending on which reading proves correct.
According to Finance sources
CommodityBrent CrudeIncreased Volatility
Russia’s strong exports, the Iran war, and the IEA’s warning of a sharp demand drop pull Brent prices in opposite directions, encouraging wider price swings as traders react to each new data point.
Source Coverage
WEST
1 articles
RU
6 articles
ME
1 articles
FINANCE
1 articles
Narrative Analysis
Divergence Detectedconfidence: 95%
Signals
Cross-block coverage detectedMultiple blocks covering the same event
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Primary Sources (9)
WESTNew York Times - WorldRussian Oil Revenues Nearly Doubled in MarchRUInterfax (RU)Рост добычи и экспорта нефти из России сдерживают трудности с логистикой и инфраструктуройRURT (EN)India’s oil imports from Russia surge – reportRUTASS (EN)Russia’s oil exports up to 7.13 mbd in March, revenues nearly double — IEA