China Sets Lowest Growth Target Since 1991 at 4.5%-5% for 2026

Chinese outlets present the 4.5%–5% target as a realistic choice that balances growth with financial risks and environmental goals. They stress that Beijing will use moderately loose monetary policy, industrial upgrading and support for new sectors like AI to keep employment stable while accepting slower headline growth. They argue that this approach will make China’s expansion more sustainable and less dependent on property and heavy industry.

• •Chinese leaders describe the 4.5%–5% GDP target as achievable without resorting to excessive stimulus that could worsen debt risks.
• •Government planners say moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 will support credit to manufacturing, technology and small firms rather than fuel another property boom.
• •Official commentary links the 3.8% carbon intensity cut to a push for cleaner growth while still relying on coal for energy security.
• •Chinese reports highlight investment in artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing as new drivers to replace past reliance on real estate and exports.
• •State-linked economists argue that accepting slower growth now will help China avoid a sharp downturn later.